Policy Challenge
This study explores how the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted travel behavior among young adults, especially those in Generations Y and Z. The pandemic has dramatically changed everyday practices, particularly affecting work patterns and outdoor activities. As a result, the use of public transport has decreased significantly, while car traffic has increased. The purpose of this study is to determine whether these changes are temporary or reflect the emergence of new long-term travel behaviors. Furthermore, it seeks to examine how these changes vary across social and demographic groups and across the life events experienced by young adults.
- Many individuals turned to cycling during the COVID-19 pandemic, and many cities in Western countries introduced temporary cycling lanes.
- Understanding how cycling habits have evolved over time, and among whom, can inform future active transportation policy.
- Young adults, a group often characterized as environmentally conscious and digital natives, are particularly important to study in this context.
- To address this gap, we investigated the following research questions:
- How has cycling frequency among young adults changed after the COVID-19 pandemic?
- How do socio-demographic factors, travel satisfaction, and life events influence these changes?
Data
- We explored data from the StudentMoveTO research program in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area, Canada.
- Longitudinal data was collected through an online survey of 552 students, conducted in fall 2019 (before the COVID-19 pandemic) and spring 2022 (post-pandemic).
- All participants were students in a post-secondary institution in 2019, but some completed their education by 2022.
Two-Step Modelling
- Bivariate multinomial logistic regression model: to explore bivariate associations between changes in cycling frequency and participant characteristics.
- Discrete choice multinomial logit model: to account for non-linear effects and understand the variables influencing cycling behaviour changes.
Figure 1: Locations of post-secondary institutions and residential locations of respondents within the GTHA, in 2022.
Key Findings
- Younger individuals (under 23) were less likely to decrease commute-related cycling post-pandemic.
- Owning a bicycle in 2019 was associated with a higher likelihood of reporting decreased commute-related cycling in 2022.
- High satisfaction with active commuting pre-pandemic significantly increased the likelihood of higher cycling frequency post-pandemic.
Policy Implications
- Results show that 9% of respondents increased their frequency of cycling, confirming sustained interest in cycling post-pandemic among young adults.
- Strategic programming targeting younger individuals can deliver better success in encouraging commute-related cycling.
- Initiatives aimed at improving commute satisfaction for current bicycle users can encourage continued cycling in the longer term.